Why Is The Current US Shutdown Distinct (as well as Harder to Resolve)?

Placeholder image Government shutdown illustration

Government closures have become a recurring feature of US politics – however the current situation appears especially difficult to resolve because of political dynamics and deep-seated animosity among the two parties.

Certain federal operations are temporarily suspended, and about 750,000 people are expected to be put on furlough without pay as both political parties remain unable to reach consensus regarding budget legislation.

Legislative attempts to resolve the deadlock have repeatedly failed, with little visibility on a clear resolution path this time because each side – as well as the President – can see some merit in digging in.

Here are several key factors in which things feel different currently.

First, For Democrats, it's about Trump – not just healthcare

The Democratic base has been demanding for months for their representatives adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Currently the party leadership has a chance to show they have listened.

Earlier this year, Senate leader was fiercely criticised for helping pass a Republican spending bill and averting a government closure early this year. Now he's holding firm.

This is a chance for the Democratic party to show they can take back certain authority from an administration that has moved aggressively on its agenda.

Refusing to back the Republican spending plan comes with political risk that the wider public may become impatient as the dispute drags on and consequences begin to mount.

The Democrats are using the budget standoff to highlight concerns about ending healthcare financial support and Republican-approved government healthcare cuts for the poor, which are both unpopular.

Additionally, they're attempting to restrict the President's use of his executive powers to rescind or withhold money authorized legislatively, which he has done in international assistance and various federal programs.

Second, For Republicans, they see potential

The President and one of his key officials have made little secret of the fact that they smell a chance to make more of reductions in government employment implemented during in the Republican's second presidency so far.

The nation's leader personally said last week that the government closure provided him with an "unprecedented opportunity", and that he would look to reduce funding for "opposition-supported departments".

Administration officials stated they would face a "challenging responsibility" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations if the shutdown continued. An administration spokesperson described this as "budgetary responsibility".

The extent of possible job cuts remains unclear, though administration officials has been in discussions with federal budget authorities, the budgeting office, which is headed by the key official.

The administration's financial chief has previously declared the suspension of federal funding for Democratic-run parts the opposition party, such as NYC and Illinois' largest city.

3. There's little trust on either side

Whereas past government closures have been characterised by late-night talks among political opponents aimed at restoring government services running again, currently there seems little of the same spirit of collaboration this time.

Instead, there is rancour. Political tensions persisted recently, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other for causing the impasse.

The legislative leader a Republican, accused Democrats with insufficient commitment about negotiating, and maintaining positions over a deal "for electoral protection".

Simultaneously, the Senate leader made similar charges against their counterparts, stating how a Republican promise to discuss healthcare subsidies after operations resume can not be taken seriously.

The administration leader personally has inflamed the situation through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction of the Senate leader and the top Democrat opposition figure, in which the legislator is depicted with traditional headwear and facial hair.

The representative and other Democrats called this racist, a characterization rejected by the administration's second-in-command.

4. The US economy faces vulnerability

Experts project approximately two-fifths of the federal workforce – over 800,000 workers – to face furlough due to the government closure.

That will depress spending – with broader economic consequences, including halted environmental approvals, patent approvals, interrupted vendor payments along with various forms of government activity connected to commercial interests comes to a halt.

The closure additionally introduces new uncertainty within economic systems currently experiencing disruption by changes ranging from tariffs, earlier cuts to government spending, immigration raids and technological advancements.

Analysts estimate that it could shave as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth for each week it lasts.

However, economic activity generally rebounds most of that lost activity after a shutdown ends, similar to recovery patterns caused by a natural disaster.

That could be one reason why financial markets have shown limited reaction to the ongoing impasse.

On the other hand, analysts say that if the President carries out his threat of mass firings, economic harm might become extended in duration.

Joanne Moran
Joanne Moran

A passionate gamer and tech enthusiast with years of experience in the gaming industry.